2015: the true standings

The 2015 season probably was not the most exciting F1 season in history. One important reason was Hamilton's dominance in the first part of the season, which enabled him to decide the championship fairly early in the season. He was, however, also helped by Rosberg's misfortune. Could Rosberg have threatened Hamilton without his bad luck? And how would other drivers have performed without luck intervening? Let's find out!*

Australia

A race to forget as only 13 cars survived the first lap, while two more cars retired shortly after their pitstops. Räikkönen lost a likely 5th place, which drops Nasr and Ricciardo to 6th and 7th. The Toro Rossos of Sainz and Verstappen would have been 8th and 9th without a lengthy pitstop (Sainz) or a blown engine (Verstappen). Hülkenberg would then drop back to 10th place and Ericsson and Pérez would have dropped out of the points.

Malaysia

An interesting, yet rather straightforward race, with only a few mutations outside the points, where Button and Maldonado were on their way to finish in 12th and 13th place.

China

A much more difficult race. Maldonado was ahead of Grosjean when his brakes started to fail, so let's give him 7th place. Verstappen retired at the end of the race in 8th place, so let's give him 9th place (as Maldonado would still be ahead of him). Hülkenberg and Kvyat had to retire early in the race, but they were unlikely to score points anyway. Sainz lost some time due to a gearbox glitch, but it did not significantly affect his final position.

Bahrain

The first race in the season with some true battles at the front. Rosberg lost 2nd place to Räikkönen in the penultimate lap due to a brake problem, but Räikkönen was faster than him anyway, so this is a tough call. Let's assume for simplicity sake that Rosberg's problem didn't affect the final result. Ericsson lost a lot of time in the pits. His pace appeared to be good enough to beat the Pérez-Kvyat-Massa tussle, so an 8th place went begging. Maldonado also lost a lot of time during his last pitstop, but as he received a 5-second time penalty, he was likely to be classified behind Massa (who would have finished 11th) anyway.

Spain

A weird accident caused Maldonado to make another stop, which dropped him out of contention. He was 7th after a very strong opening phase and he may very well have finished there. Alonso was the other retirement, but he only lost a 14th place.

Monaco

Hamilton deserved to win this race, even though he was partly to blame for the decision to make that fateful second pitstop. In the midfield there were more unhappy drivers. Maldonado retired early in the race with yet again a brake failure. There is not enough data to determine his race pace, but given the impossibility of overtaking in Monaco, even with a disappointing pace he could have finished 8th. Verstappen would (at least) have finished in 9th place without his 30-second stop (and subsequent crash), while Alonso would likely have finished in 11th place behind Button.

Canada

Only some mutations at the back, where Merhi and the McLaren drivers retired towards the end of the race.

Austria

A bad pitstop cost Vettel 3rd place. Grosjean was on his way to at least a 9th place. Sainz, however, was unlikely to finish in the points.

United Kingdom

Ricciardo was just ahead of Sainz, who was in 9th place after the pitstops, so they would likely have finished in 9th and 10th position, barring mistakes when the rain came down.

Hungary

Räikkönen was the biggest victim of this chaotic race, as he lost an almost certain 2nd place. Rosberg and Ricciardo then had a race incident, which cost them 3rd and 4th place. Hamilton was perhaps a bit more to blame in his accident with Ricciardo and without the lost time in the pits he would have been 5th. Bottas also suffered a flat tire, which then cost him a 6th place. This then drops Kvyat to 7th and Verstappen to 8th place, while Sainz was good enough to claim 9th place without his issues. Alonso's strong drive should have earned him only one point.

Belgium

Vettel was on his way to 3rd place when his tire blew unexpectedly in the penultimate lap. Ricciardo then lost a 5th place when his car died in the Busstop Chicane, while Bottas lost a 6th place because of a weird tire mix-up.

Italy

Rosberg lost a 3rd place when his "old" engine finally gave up.

Singapore

Kvyat was hugely unlucky with the pitstops. He should have been 4th. Without his problems Hamilton would then have been 5th. Hülkenberg and Massa would have been 8th and 9th had they not collided.

Japan

Not much to say. Sainz was driving well until he damaged his front wing after a very late call, which cost him a 9th place.

Russia

Rosberg retired early in the race. which cost him a likely win. Bottas and Räikkönen then lost fourth and fifth place when Räikkönen crashed into his compatriot in the last lap. Ricciardo and Sainz were on their way to 7th and 8th place until their cars gave up the ghost in the final stages of the race.

United States

Many drivers eliminated themselves in the damp conditions at the beginning of the race. Hülkenberg was a bit unlucky when he crashed into Ricciardo after a front-wing failure, which cost him a 5th place. Alonso was unlucky at the start, but he was lucky with the safety cars. Without engine problems he may have finished in 6th place ahead of Pérez.

Mexico

Vettel was unlucky at the start, otherwise he was likely to finish in 3rd place. Räikkönen was a bit unlucky when Bottas ran into him as a retribution for what happened in Russia, but his pace was disappointing anyway.

Brazil

Nothing much happened. As he was quite slow compared to his teammate, it seems that Massa did not really benefit from his under-inflated tires, so let's give him that 8th place back.

Abu Dhabi

Kvyat lost engine power towards the end of the race, which cost him two places. Bottas was 10th before he ran into the back of Button in the pits, so let's give him 10th place.

Conclusion

Due to reliability problems and collisions there is a tendency for points to flow from the front to the back of the grid. This season Rosberg was the biggest net loser. He scored 40 points less than in the ideal-world situation. The Ferrari drivers lost 27 points each, while Hamilton only lost 15 points. The difference in lost points between the Mercedes drivers was not nearly enough for Rosberg to claim the title, but the gap would at least have shrunk from 59 to 34 points, enough to make the championship battle go on for two more races.

Points scored per driver and the ideal-world scenario.

The ideal-world scenario allows us to more accurately determine the relative strength of the drivers. The Williams drivers, for example, were seemingly very close (Bottas scored 136 points, Massa 121), but as Bottas lost 16 points due to bad luck, while Massa gained 21, the true difference should have been a much more substantial 52 points. Although he was outscored by his teammate, Ricciardo was the better Red Bull driver, as he lost a couple of points, while Kvyat was one of the biggest net gainers. Also Hülkenberg should have outscored Pérez, while Maldonado was much closer to Grosjean than the standings would suggest.

The team scores show that the top teams lost some and that these points were gained by the midfield teams like Force India (+27) and Red Bull (+20). Sauber (+22) made the highest relative gains, which suggests that the team really had to depend on other teams' misfortune to score points. The high relative gains of the weaker teams is illustrated in the graph below, which uses a logarithmic scale to highlight relative gains.

Actual points and ideal-world points per team on a logarithmic scale.

McLaren (grey-black) and Sauber (yellow-blue) scored well above their ideal-world points, the relative gains and losses were much less for the other teams. Ferrari (red) and Mercedes (grey) were the only net losers.

* I try to correct only for factors that are outside the drivers' control, like mechanical problems, botched pitstops and unforeseen consequences of wheel-to-wheel battles. Note that this is no rocket science. I only try to establish the true potential of all drivers.